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Phrase used to describe any contest, but especially an election, when no competitor has a clear advantage. Usually, this is only when the statistical or other properties of the model being used to predict the outcome render that model insufficiently precise to permit high confidence in the prediction's accuracy.

For example, a Florida presidential exit poll with a 95% confidence interval of two percentage points is not sufficiently precise to predict a winner if the margin of victory in that poll is only half a percentage point, since the two ends of the confidence interval predict two different outcomes.

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