To vote or not to vote? That is the question. As I write this, there are conversations taking place in several forums on the Internet over the pros and cons of voting in the United States’ upcoming presidential election. Some find it inexcusable to not vote; others think it folly to participate in the process at all. Some believe that voting for Ralph Nader will send a clear message to the government; others believe that not voting at all will send a stronger message. Some see not voting as apathetic; others see voting as perpetuating a failing system. Some say not voting speaks to the disgust of our citizens; others say voting protects us from the greater of two evils.

As far as it can be told, though, to those who are apathetic toward government, a widespread non-vote sends a clear signal of apathy. To those who are disgusted with the government, a widespread non-vote sends a clear signal of disgust. To those who are too lazy to vote, a widespread non-vote only shows how so many others are lazy, too. And to the politicians, who desperately hope that everyone will approve of and like them, a wide-spread non-vote only means that there are those many people out there who don’t approve of or like them.

But when I see people express sentiments that voting will change things more than not voting, I wonder if they’ve actually studied the voting process. I’m speaking, of course, of the Electoral College, a method of election that was originally begun to ensure balance of voice among all the states when casting their votes, but is also under some heavy-duty criticism these day.

Basically, it works like this:

1) Every state is allocated a certain number of electors, based on the number of senators in their state plus the number of congressmen.

2) Through conventions, appointment, or direct designation, each political party in each state submits a list of people pledged to vote for their candidate, equal to the number of electoral votes in that state. Note that at this point, the presidential and vice-presidential candidates have not been chosen yet, because

3) After their caucuses and primaries, the major parties then nominate their candidates.

4) On voting day, we vote, but we’re not voting for the president, we’re casting our votes for the party slate of Electors who represent our choice for president.

5) Whichever party slate wins that state becomes that state’s Electors for the College. In effect, then, all the votes that mean anything coming out of a state will be for one candidate only, because the other party’s Electors lost, so they will not be voting on that state’s behalf for the other candidate.

6) In December, long after the popular vote is run, the state Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their votes for the candidate they’d previously pledged toward (before the candidates were even chosen)

7) The electoral votes are sealed and delivered to the President of the Senate, and on January 6, these votes are read and decide who the president will be.

So, you see, when you cast your vote, if you decide to do so, you’re really electing a party so the appropriate group of Electors can step forward and cast their vote. Part of the crux is, they are not legally bound to vote in accordance with the wishes of their constituents.

It’s been pointed out the Electoral College members have voted in accordance with the wishes of their constituents 99% of the time in America’s history, and therefore one should feel relatively safe with the speaking power of their vote. One may have confidence if one wishes, but the fact is the simple math doesn’t support this. Such thinking has fallen victim to what is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy. If you have repeatedly flipped a certain perfectly shaped coin a number of times and found that it came up heads 99% of the time, it seems natural to assume that the next toss has a 99% chance of also being heads. Alas, the next toss has an even 50-50 chance of being heads, just like any other toss. The casting of the votes by the Electoral College members is no different. A 99% history is comforting, but the next election only holds a 50-50 chance that they will vote in line with the voice of the public.

And those aren’t very good odds, indeed.

There are several instances of curious events occurring with this process, including one in which the Electoral College vote completely overturned the popular vote. In 1888, the people elected Grover Cleveland for a second term. The Electoral College, though, elected Benjamin Harrison, and that was the end of that.


My research shows that 24 out of 50 states now require electors to vote in line with the popular vote. Not quite a "vast majority," but better than nothing.