Infinite monkeys theorem (idea)

"Ford!" he said, "there's an infinite number of monkeys outside who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they've worked out."
Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (1979).

This quote is perhaps the most famous reference to the Infinite Monkeys Theorem. This theorem states that if you put an infinite number of monkeys behind typewriters, eventually one will write the script for Hamlet. Alternatively a finite number of monkeys with infinite time will also accomplish this. The implication is that a problem or task of any complexity can be solved using brute force trial-and-error, even without intrinsic knowledge of a system, nor the intelligence to adapt to a situation.

The infinite monkeys theorem applies to (generally large) systems where the dataset is either sampled entirely in a systematic manner, or completely at random.

An example of sampling the entire dataset is finding a computer password or cryptographic key by brute force; one would simply try all possible character combinations (e.g.: aaaa,aaab, aaac...) until the proper solution is found. This would take a very long time, especially if there is no additional information about the length of the password, or the characters that are allowed. Nevertheless, this technique can be quite effective for smaller datasets. For instance, if the Coca Cola company wants to introduce a new beverage, they may survey people about a few of the properties of the drink, such as color, flavor, and carbonation. If each property has two options, they could do a market survey on the entire dataset, and serve the survey group a total of 8 drinks:

1. Lemon / Yellow / Carbonated
2. Lemon / Yellow / Non-Carbonated
3. Lemon / Red / Carbonated
4. Lemon / Red / Non-Carbonated
5. Raspberry / Yellow / Carbonated
6. Raspberry / Yellow / Non-Carbonated
7. Raspberry / Red / Carbonated
8. Raspberry / Red / Non-Carbonated

Using common sense, a researcher would only consider yellow lemon or red raspberry drinks, but the general idea is clear. For larger numbers of combinations in the dataset, this method becomes impractical very quickly. If we want to survey another property, the number of drinks doubles (2⁴ = 16). If there are three choices for each category, the number of possibilities increases to 3³=27.

An example of random sampling of a large dataset is (to a certain degree) evolution. The combination of different genetic material, and mutations allow for a seemingly infinite number of genotypes, each of which are more or less adjusted to a dynamic environment (not taking into account the factors that make up natural selection). Another example in this category is the mathematics of irrational numbers such as e, and pi. It is often assumed that pi is a normal number, i.e. any arbitrary, finite string of digits is represented somewhere in the digits of pi. The string of digits could be your phone number, social security number, or even Hamlet in ASCII values. However, there is no formal proof of this yet.

One final example in the time domain is the prophecies of Nostradamus. Given a final number of arbitrary, vague prophecies, and an infinite amount of time, each and every prophecy will prove to be true.

The history of the infinite monkeys theorem is not entirely known. Most certainly, Douglas Adams is not the source of the theorem, as it was reported much earlier than that. It may be as old as the typewriter itself. Or perhaps one of the infinite monkeys scribbled it into the soil with a stick a few thousand years ago. However, the first historical notion of the infinite monkeys theorem is in French, by Emile Borel¹ (1913):

... Concevons qu'on ait dressé un million de singes à frapper au hasard sur les touches d'une machine à écrire et que, sous la surveillance de contremaîtres illettrés, ces singes dactylographes travaillent avec ardeur dix heures par jour avec un million de machines à écrire de types variés. Les contremaîtres illettrés rassembleraient les feuilles noircies et les relieraient en volumes. Et au bout d'un an, ces volumes se trouveraient renfermer la copie exacte des livres de toute nature et de toutes langues conservés dans les plus riches bibliothèques du monde. Telle est la probabilité pour qu'il se produise pendant un instant très court, dans un espace de quelque étendue, un écart notable de ce que la mécanique statistique considère comme la phénomène le plus probable...

Let's consider that we trained one million monkeys to randomly strike the keys of a typewriter, and that under surveillance of illiterate foremen the monkey typists ardently work for ten hours per day on one million typewriters. The illiterate foremen would collect the blackened sheets and compile them into volumes. And after one year, those volumes would contain the exact copy of books on any subject, in any language, in the largest libraries around the world. This is the probability that occurs during one very short moment, at some place, a remarkable event that statistical mechanics considers to be the event with the highest probability

The first mention of the infinite monkeys theorem in English is attributed to Sir Arthur Eddington² (1929):

...If I let my fingers wander idly over the keys of a typewriter it might happen that my screed made an intelligible sentence. If an army of monkeys were strumming on typewriters they might write all the books in the British Museum. The chance of their doing so is decidedly more favourable than the chance of the molecules returning to one half of the vessel.

There are numerous other mentions of the infinite monkeys theorem; too many to sum up. Although one of them I found particularly interesting: L. H. C. Tippett was a statistician who was the first to produce a large table with random numbers for statistical purposes (in fact, the table consisted of 41 600) numbers. On one occasion, Tippet was introduced by Edward Condon, the director of the Bureau of Standards. Condon illustrated the idea that random events by chance may lead to a meaningful sequence, such as the possibility that a monkey may write a Shakespeare play. Referring to the book of random numbers, he then remarks that in fact Tippett had written a book that could have been produced by a monkey.

Another interesting writing on the infinite monkeys theorem is by the poet Lucio³, regarding an address at the British Association for the Advancement of Science (a.k.a. the British Ass.). The second two stanzas are:

Give me half a dozen monkeys
Set them to the lettered keys
And instruct these simian flunkies
Just to hit them as they please
Lo! The anthropoid plebians
Toiling at their careless plan
Would in course of countless aeons
Duplicate the lore of man

Thank you, thank you, men of science
Thank you, thank you British Ass!
I for long have placed reliance
On the tidbits that you pass
And this season's nicest chunk is
Just to sit and think of those
Six imperishable monkeys
Typing in eternal rows

And since we're on the topic of poetry, allow me to close by quoting a Dilbert comic strip⁴, where Dilbert writes a poem and presents it to Dogbert.

DOGBERT: I once read that given infinite time, a thousand monkeys with typewriters would eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare.

DILBERT: But what about my poem?

DOGBERT: Three monkeys, ten minutes.