To put everything in its proper historical context...
A Brief History of the Gulf War
- Background
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Many of the borders in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula are artificial creations of British and UN administrators. They do not reflect the ethnic,
religious or political realities of the region, the most characteristically disastrous result of this being the creation of the state of Israel in disputable territory.
The state of Iraq was created in 1932 by combining the former Ottoman provinces of Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, which had been under a British mandate since the end of World War I. The formation of a state this size under a single administration on one hand gave the region a third pole of power between Persia and Turkey and on the other
hand created an unstable amalgam of peoples with combined influence and might disproportionate to that of its southern neighbours. Mosul is largely Kurdish while Basra is inhabited by Shi'ite Muslims, as opposed to the majority Sunnites of Baghdad. In the context of the greater Iraqi state, both these populations are relegated to minority status.
The state of Kuwait, northernmost emirate of the Arabian peninsula, dates its history as a separate geopolitical entity back to the founding of Kuwait City in 1710, very recent by the historical measure of the region. Both the Ottomans and the Wahabi Arabs attempted to impose their direct rule on the city but both times these attempts failed due to British intervention. Kuwait becomes independent from Britain and joins the Arab League in 1961. Outstanding border disputes with Saudi Arabia are settled in 1966. Following the 1973 oil crisis, soaring oil prices bring unprecedented wealth to this small country.
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Relations between Kuwait and Iraq
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When Kuwait was declared independent from Britain, Iraq voiced objections to its admission to the Arab League, instead declaring it to be Iraqi territory. Iraq dropped
those objections in 1963 but this claim was to resurface as a pretence in the 1990 invasion and annexation. During the 1980s, the countries enjoyed fairly close ties and Kuwait was on the receiving end of Iranian disapproval and military attacks due to its support for Iraq during the 1980-1988 war between the two countries.
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Timeline
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- 1990-05-28: Saddam Hussein accuses Kuwait and the UAE of sabotaging Iraq's economy by overproducing oil and allowing oil prices to drop.
- 1990-07-17: Iraq accuses the Kuwaitis of infringing on Iraqi oil rights in the Rumaylah oil field that lies beneath the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border.
- 1990-07-22: Iraqi armed forces begin concentrating on the south-eastern border with Kuwait.
- 1990-08-02: Iraqi forces invade Kuwait and push through as far as the Saudi Arabian border. The Emir takes refuge in the United States. Four days later, the United Nations impose a complete trade embargo on Iraq.
- 1990-08-07: Saudi Arabia, unable to match the Iraqi forces gathered on its border with Kuwait, requests assistance from the United States.
- 1990-08-08: Saddam Hussein declares the annexation of Kuwait.
- 1990-08-09: The UN declares the annexation void; the first US troops arrive in Saudi Arabia.
- 1990-08-10: Saddam Hussein declares a jihad against the US and Israel. All but the more radical elements of the Muslim world ignore it.
- 1990-08-12: Foreign naval forces begin enforcing the embargo on Iraq and attempt to halt Iraqi oil exports.
- 1990-08-28: Iraq proclaims Kuwait its 19th province and renames Kuwait City to al-Kadhima.
- 1990-09-15: Great Britain and France announce that they will deploy forces in the Gulf.
- 1990-12-17: The United Nations set a deadline of 1991-01-15 for the withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait.
- 1991-01-03: The US State Department imposes censorship on press reports from the Gulf.
- 1991-01-09: Negotations between Iraq and the US end fruitless.
- 1991-01-12: President Bush is authorised by the US congress to wage war on Iraq.
- 1991-01-17: Operation Desert Storm commences at midnight UTC. The sky of Baghdad lights up as Iraq is attacked by US and British bombers, spearheading an alliance of 28 countries. Iraq's Soviet-built MiG fighters and anti-aircraft batteries prove a poor match for the enormous amount of highly sophisticated equipment deployed against them.
- 1991-01-19: Iraq launches the first Scud missiles aimed at Israeli territory. The destruction of an Iraqi nuclear facility by Israeli bombers in 1981 was still a
sore spot for Iraq. Attacks on Israel were more aimed at pleasing Arab public
opinion and had no military objective.
- 1991-01-22: Iraq begins destroying Kuwaiti oil installations and initiates an environmental disaster on a grand scale.
- 1991-01-30: The first significant ground engagement between US and Iraqi forces occurs on Saudi territory.
- 1991-02-19: A peace plan brought forward by the Soviet Union, with Iraqi approval, is declined by the US president.
- 1991-02-27: American land forces enter Kuwait City. The country is declared liberated by president Bush.
- The Aftermath (as of December 2002)
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Iraq is crippled and defiant, still under the leadership of Saddam Hussein. The impact of the war on the Iraqi oil industry is vast and the embargo takes its toll on the civilian population, reducing it from relative prosperity to third world status. The Iraqi government plays a neverending game of cat and mouse with UN-appointed inspectors assigned to ferret out chemical and biological weapons in Iraq's possession or any resources capable of providing Iraq with the capability to wage chemical, biological or nuclear warfare. In 1998, Iraq's refusal to cooperate and expulsion of UN inspectors results in fresh air raids on the country.
Large numbers of US and British forces remain stationed in Kuwait and other Gulf states as well as Turkey. A multinational task force of warships patrols the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf attempting to prevent illicit exports of oil from Iraq; smugglers operating through Turkey, Jordan and Syria have a field day. American and British war planes patrol two zones of Iraqi air space, north of 36° and south of 32° latitude, ostensibly to protect civilian populations from recriminations by the Baghdad regime (note how these areas coincide with the areas around Mosul and Basra), in practice limiting the range of the Iraqi military.
Saddam Hussein and the Bush Jr. administration continue the sabre-rattling but it's unlikely that any serious aggressive actions will be undertaken while the United States and the West are actively engaged in Afghanistan, and tension runs unusually high, even by Middle Eastern standards, in the West Bank. The US can ill afford to alienate the Arab world any more at this point.
Of course an 800-pound gorilla will assert its right to sit wherever it likes, and the military machine of the United States began preparing for action again late in 2002, as a new batch of weapons inspectors scour Iraq for evidence of hidden "forbidden" weapons and facilities.
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The Future
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As long as Saddam Hussein remains in power, there is little likelihood that the Iraqi regime will willingly mend its ways to comply with UN demands or that the United States and Britain will make any important concessions. On the other hand, the plight of the civilian population has garnered considerable international attention and led to a partial relaxation of the embargo and demands from permanent UN Security Council members France, Russia and China, as well as many Arab countries, for a better solution.
As Arab solidarity with Iraq increases and the humanitarian crisis is perceived as deepening, the US and Britain will find themselves increasingly cast in the role of aggressor. However, the general embargo is being quietly flaunted by numerous parties and consumer goods are increasingly available, and will probably reach a point at which the embargo becomes more of a nuisance than an effective weapon. Developments in Palestine have reduced local support of US actions, as it continues to support Israel, and the coalition that took back Kuwait has virtually disbanded and reassembling it would be a tough act.
Prosperous Kuwait, after 100 years of British and American protection, may never cast off its reputation as a satellite country and remains a target for its powerful neighbours. Of course, in this part of the world, there have never been any easy answers and any predictions are risky at best. I'll let history decide itself and node it after it's been made.
The now
The history I speak of is on the verge of being made, and not in a pretty way. I suppose it will all be recorded by others and am leaving the above as is for now. I recommend reading March 17, 2003 and March 18, 2003 for reactions and opinions and may add the facts after current events have taken their course and come to a conclusion. --2003-03-18
Sources:
Encyclopaedia of the Orient
Ali al-Sammawy (http://welcome.to/iraq4ever)
The Gulf Syndrome (http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/Bunker/6885/gulfsyndrome/)