I still can’t quite understand the logic of those who promote national
missile defense. It would seem that the arguments against a
Missile Defense System (MDS) preclude any premature unilateral deployment, but proponents for this financial and technical
boondoggle keep pushing.
The technical case
The technical reasons against the deployment of an MDS are many. The early-warning aspect of the system is relatively mature, as much of it was developed and upgraded since the beginning of the Cold War, but the technology behind what happens after the alert is given is still in development. There are three places an ICBM is vulnerable to attack from the time the launch order is given to the time it reaches it target: the boost phase, the exoatmospheric phase, and the terminal phase.
Boost phase
In the boost phase, the ICBM leaves its launcher and flies upward into space. The most-suggested attack method at this stage uses a high-energy laser to strike the ICBM when it is at its weakest and most vulnerable. The ICBM is still a huge, fuel-filled steel tube at this point, and a relatively weak attack can destroy the missile.
However, there are several hurdles to overcome. First, due to the nature of laser beam behavior in atmosphere and over distance, the laser itself would have to be based in a country bordering the area under concern, or carried in a large aircraft flying in the area, close enough to the launch site for the laser to be effective.
To combat this, the missile can be “hardened” to resist laser fire. Adding a shiny exterior, covering the booster with relatively light ablative (it protects by burning away in a controlled manner) armor, or making the missile rotate about its axis as it rises (or all three) complicate the laser’s job of putting enough energy on a given spot on the missile long enough to burn through.
Exoatmospheric, or Flight phase
The time the ICBM spends in its long suborbital arc to its target is another point where it is vulnerable to attack. The weapon proposed to destroy the warhead at this phase is called an exoatmospheric kill vehicle (EKV). This is a three-stage rocket that is launched from the ground to intercept the missile as it cruises through outer space. A weapon of this type recently succeeded in striking its target during the most recent test. However, the test conditions were slanted to favor success in the area of target detection. Decoys are a very effective method of increasing ICBM survivability. The testing currently being performed uses a single balloon to simulate a decoy, but this is a dangerous assumption. In reality, decoys could be made out of metal with weight, flight characteristics, and radar signature of a real warhead.
The terminal phase
Once the real warhead has been detected and the decoys discounted, the warhead must be intercepted high up enough that the interception actually accomplishes something. The performance of the Patriot Anti-Missile System in the Persian Gulf has shown us that hitting an incoming missile with an interceptor is not enough, as the warhead must be destroyed or thrown far enough off track to completely miss its target to be considered a successful intercept. America has not achieved this capability yet.
The dangers of unilateral deployment
These technical hurdles will be overcome. America is throwing huge sums of money at the problems, and will eventually succeed in creating a rudimentary MDS. What will happen then?
Unilateral deployment of an MDS can only be viewed as destabilizing. In this, President Bush is making a grave error. By fielding an MDS to combat “rogue states” America is also provoking other nations to develop methods of overcoming such a system.
Several countries, such as Russia, depend on their nuclear arsenals to give them a seat at the big table, where they would otherwise have to wait at the door like the rest of the non-nuclear (or non-rich) world. An MDS, even if declared to be for use against others, would be a major provocation, threatening to marginalize them. Their fear is that if their arsenals are rendered largely useless as a result of MDS deployment by the USA, they would become helpless in the face of American hegemony.
The Terrorist Equation
The entire Missile Defense house of cards collapses in the face of terrorism. As the recent tragedy at the World Trade Center demonstrates, you do not need a missile to hurt America. The number of ways to do significant damage to the US is uncountable. A determined enough foe will find the hole in your armor. Ways will be found to penetrate any missile defense system. America should research missile defense. That is obvious. However, an MDS wouldn't be able to prevent a boat or a car or a van with a nuke in it from reaching this country.